Saturday night's game at AT&T Park will feature two of the league's most promising young hurlers. Boston's Clay Buchholz is much more experienced and proven than his opponent, but San Fran's Madison Bumgarner is "supposed" to be a future ace. Buchholz has posted 48 career starts and is finally blossoming into the hyped player he was by pitching to the tune of an impressive 2.47 ERA. Possibly the Giants' top prospect, Bumgarner (what a rough last name to grow up with!) enters this game having only started a total of 1 game (he also made 3 relief appearances in 2009) in his career. I would expect Boston to work the youngster's pitch count and have him out of the game either before or during the sixth inning. San Fran's offense is no match for the likes of Buchholz, so he should turn in a dominating performance in another Red Sox victory.
Now on to the news of the day (there is only 1 game so far, so news is limited). Johan Santana is widely regarded as the ace of the New York Mets. But is he on a major down swing in his career?
Honestly, Johan has started 16 games this year, 7 of which he has given up 4 or more earned runs. He gave up 10 earned runs to the Phillies in a horrific start in early May. His other 6 rough starts consist of one 5-run outing to Washington and four 4-run showings against SF, SD, CLE, and NYY. His total ERA on the season is still around 3.60, so maybe his rough starts aren't enough to ring the alarm. The reason I am writing about this unusual occurance: he is getting lit up again today!
His three most recent starts all ended with 6 0r 7 IP and 4 earned runs. Today, through 4 innings against Minnesota he has given up 5 earned runs. I won't even bother to pretend I know what is wrong with him (because, to be frank, I haven't the slightest clue), but if he doesn't turn it around, the Mets are in deep trouble.
So, is he still the ace? For now, yes. However, a changing of the guard may be taking place around Citi field these days. Veterans John Maine and Oliver Perez have been walking injuries so far this year (and when they were healthy, they completely underperformed) and youngsters Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese have pitched extremely well in the first half of 2010. If these vets continue to struggle (especially Johan), we may be looking at a completely different pitching staff in 2011, headed by none other than Pelfrey himself.
Johan's command the last 30 days is 1.1 - that's the issue. He's not locating the fastball. While his skills are declining, it could have to do a bit with the elbow surgery he had. He's probably no longer an ace but a solid #2.
ReplyDeleteAs for Baumgarner, I was impressed how he settled down and 1 hit the Sox after a rough 1st two innings. He's not throwing 95 like he used to but he's in the low 90's after a mechanical adjustment and he has a new cutter that looks effective.