At the beginning of the season, if I had told you that on July 5th both Ian Kennedy and Tom Gorzelanny would have sub 4.00 ERA's, you would have thought I had a couple of screws loose. As unprobable as it may be, it's true. The two starters face off this afternoon at 1 o'clock hoping to lower their respective ERA's even further towards that illustrious 3.00 mark.
The starter for the home team, Ian Kennedy, has an ERA of 3.77 and a WHIP of 1.23 (his career numbers are 4.61 and 1.39). He has managed to maintain such an impressive mark into July by having success at his home ballpark, Chase Field. His ERA at home sits at a solid 2.41 (it's 4.70 on the road, yikes!) which has kept his overall numbers way down.
Kennedy's opponent, Tom Gorzelanny, has been even better so far: his ERA is 3.14 and his WHIP is 1.37 (his career numbers sit at 4.64 and 1.47). What is the key to his success? Three main things have contributed to his stellar start so far this season. He doesn't give up the longball (only three HR allowed all season), he strikes out a batter per inning (65 K's in 63 IP), and he has been lights out on the road. In 29 innings pitched on the road his ERA sits at a Josh Johnson-like 1.86.
So, who will win today? Who has the better the shot of maintaining this level of performance all season?
The winner today will be Ian Kennedy, but not because he is any better than Gorzelanny. This game will be decided on the offensive side of the ball, in which, the Diamondbacks are far superior to the Cubs. The player with the best shot of continuing this success all season is Tom Gorzelanny. His high strikeout, low HR, and fairly low walk rate will help him in the long run. If the Cubs offense can provide three or four runs a game for Gorzelanny he may be able to finish the year around 10-8 (he is 2-5 now).
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